© DELARA News a monthly publication of the Delaware Amateur Radio Association
DELARANEWS

Tech

When you thought it couldn’t get any worse…

Dan Romanchik, KB6NU If you operate HF, it’s no secret that band conditions have not been great. The reason, of course, is that we’re at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. If we’re at the bottom of the sunspot cycle, then there’s no way to go but up, right? Maybe not. Recent data from the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center seems to suggest that solar activity isn’t going to get better any time soon. Here’s their solar flux projection as measured by the F10.7 index: As you can see, the projection is for declining solar activity through 2022! And, if that wasn’t depressing enough, I recently came across an article reporting on the research of Prof. Valentina Zharkova, who is predicting a grand minimum of 30 years! The article states: The gist of the matter is that all three main cycles are entering minimum phase, beginning with the end of this current solar cycle (Cycle 24). Cycle 25 will be even lower than 24, with 26 being very nearly flat-lined. Cycle 27 will begin to show a few signs of life, then there will be a gradual rise to full activity over several more solar cycles, even as the last three cycles have slowly decreased in levels. This means that the bottom of the extended, or ‘Grand’ minimum (to use Zharkova’s terminology), should run from ~2020 to ~2053. The “grand minimum” not only affects HF propagation, but our climate as well. I’m not enough of an earth scientist to say much more about that, but you might want to watch the video of Zharkova’s presentation to the Global Warming Policy Foundation last October: The good news is that less solar flux means satellites will have an easier time of it. I guess I really do need to get serious about satellite operation and sooner rather than later.
DELARANews

Tech

When you thought it couldn’t get

any worse…

Dan Romanchik, KB6NU If you operate HF, it’s no secret that band conditions have not been great. The reason, of course, is that we’re at the bottom of the sunspot cycle. If we’re at the bottom of the sunspot cycle, then there’s no way to go but up, right? Maybe not. Recent data from the NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center seems to suggest that solar activity isn’t going to get better any time soon. Here’s their solar flux projection as measured by the F10.7 index: As you can see, the projection is for declining solar activity through 2022! And, if that wasn’t depressing enough, I recently came across an article reporting on the research of Prof. Valentina Zharkova, who is predicting a grand minimum of 30 years! The article states: The gist of the matter is that all three main cycles are entering minimum phase, beginning with the end of this current solar cycle (Cycle 24). Cycle 25 will be even lower than 24, with 26 being very nearly flat-lined. Cycle 27 will begin to show a few signs of life, then there will be a gradual rise to full activity over several more solar cycles, even as the last three cycles have slowly decreased in levels. This means that the bottom of the extended, or ‘Grand’ minimum (to use Zharkova’s terminology), should run from ~2020 to ~2053. The “grand minimum” not only affects HF propagation, but our climate as well. I’m not enough of an earth scientist to say much more about that, but you might want to watch the video of Zharkova’s presentation to the Global Warming Policy Foundation last October: The good news is that less solar flux means satellites will have an easier time of it. I guess I really do need to get serious about satellite operation and sooner rather than later.