Tech
The DX Commander Antenna
Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big, early
by Dan KB6NU Aug 5, 2021
A new solar cycle 25 forecast predicts that the cycle will be big, while a second predicts that it will be
early.
Southgate ARC reports:
NASA Heliophysicists have released a revised prediction for Solar Cycle 25. The report generated by
Ricky Egeland, a solar physicist working in the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for the
peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of 195 ± 17 based upon the new scale for calculating
Smoothed Sun Spot Number. For reference Solar Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while
Solarcycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale). If this predictions holds up Ham Radio will see
Excellent Worldwide F Layer Conditions on 10 Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6 Meters
conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods before and after Solar Max with consistent
openings on Medium Haul Polar Routes. 6 Meter routes traversing the equator should experience
consistent openings ± 9 months from Solar Max.
That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?
The second report appears on SpaceWeather.Com:
SOLAR MAX MIGHT COME A YEAR EARLY: Solar Cycle 25 is heating up faster than expected. The latest
sign may be found in sunspot counts from July 2021. Continuing a trend that started last year, they
overperform the official forecast:
Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, the official forecast calls for Solar
Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in
October 2024. This is just outside the 8-month error bars of the Panel’s forecast.
Predictions like these really have little practical use for amateur radio operators. We all know that
propagation will get better as we get into Cycle 25, and there’s nothing that we can do to make it
better. I suppose that if you have been thinking of putting up some kind of directial antenna—I’ve
been thinking about putting up a hex beam—this information might spur you to do it sooner, rather
than later. For the most part, though, we just have to go with the flow.
The post Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big, early appeared first on KB6NU's Ham Radio Blog.
Tech
The DX Commander Antenna
Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big,
early
by Dan KB6NU Aug 5, 2021
A new solar cycle 25 forecast predicts that the cycle
will be big, while a second predicts that it will be
early.
Southgate ARC reports:
NASA Heliophysicists have released a revised
prediction for Solar Cycle 25. The report generated
by Ricky Egeland, a solar physicist working in the
NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group now calls for
the peak of Solar Cycle 25 to top out at a value of
195 ± 17 based upon the new scale for calculating
Smoothed Sun Spot Number. For reference Solar
Cycle 21 peaked at an SSN 233 (new scale) while
Solarcycle 23 peaked at an SSN of 180 (new scale). If
this predictions holds up Ham Radio will see
Excellent Worldwide F Layer Conditions on 10
Meters for several years around Solar Max. 6 Meters
conditions should be good in the Equinox Periods
before and after Solar Max with consistent openings
on Medium Haul Polar Routes. 6 Meter routes
traversing the equator should experience consistent
openings ± 9 months from Solar Max.
That sounds pretty good, doesn’t it?
The second report appears on SpaceWeather.Com:
SOLAR MAX MIGHT COME A YEAR EARLY: Solar Cycle
25 is heating up faster than expected. The latest
sign may be found in sunspot counts from July 2021.
Continuing a trend that started last year, they
overperform the official forecast:
Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction
Panel in 2019, the official forecast calls for Solar
Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to
current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in
October 2024. This is just outside the 8-month error
bars of the Panel’s forecast.
Predictions like these really have little practical use
for amateur radio operators. We all know that
propagation will get better as we get into Cycle 25,
and there’s nothing that we can do to make it better.
I suppose that if you have been thinking of putting
up some kind of directial antenna—I’ve been
thinking about putting up a hex beam—this
information might spur you to do it sooner, rather
than later. For the most part, though, we just have
to go with the flow.
The post Predictions call for solar cycle 25 to be big, early appeared first on KB6NU's Ham Radio
Blog.